UPDATE: Did Trump’s Trump Work? My Theory on Why Gloria Allred’s October Surprise on Behalf of Obama Flopped

Team Trump Launches Preemptive Strike Against Team Allred

On Wednesday I theorized that Donald Trump’s anti-climatic announcement was designed to hold the threat of a document dump over Gloria Allred’s head.  Trump is getting slammed by the left and the right for his silly  publicity stunt, but by golly, I think I was right.

October Surprise Fail

Here’s how I think this botched October surprise went down:

In a private meeting not too long ago, Gloria Allred agreed to help Barry get re-elected. Gloria’s confidence in her ability to assist Barry was bolstered by recent successes reeking havoc on the Herman Cain and Meg Whitman campaigns. So Gloria set out to find a “Mitt victim,” a credible female who could tearfully accuse Mitt Romney of some kind of egregious wrongdoing. Ideally the offense would involve sex — an affair or harassment — but at minimum maybe she’d find an illegal Mexican worker who had been abused by the Romneys during the construction of their California home. Whatever, you get the idea.

Much to her frustration, my theory goes, Gloria could not find any dirt on Mitt, not even a tenuous claim separated by six degrees of outrage. As a last resort, Gloria teamed up with Maureen Sullivan Stemberg, the ex-wife of one of Mitt’s Staples business partners, Tom Stemberg. It’s no secret that Ms. Stemberg, who is rumored to be an anti-Mormon bigot, is still bitter about her 25-year-old divorce, and I suspect that she relished the opportunity to expose her ex-husband to more negative publicity while at the same time damaging Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. The claim would be that Mitt misrepresented the financial status of Staples in order to help his partner Tom.

To set up the October surprise, Gloria would need to get the divorce records unsealed and a gag order lifted. Since she’s not licensed to practice law in Massachusetts, The Boston Globe (formerly a paper of some journalistic repute) agreed to provide legal representation to help with the task, and they set about putting the motions in place.

Meanwhile, Matt Drudge got wind that Gloria was planning an October surprise and tweeted it to the world on Oct. 18, setting off a flurry of speculation about the scandal Gloria would dump on Mitt’s campaign. Enter Donald Trump.

On Oct. 21, Trump announced that he had his own October surprise, something “very very big” that he would be announcing on Oct. 24. And this is where the story picks up with my Wednesday post. I believe that Trump’s announcement was a preemptive strike against Team Gloria. Whether he actually has Obama records in his possession or not (and it would not surprise me if he did), the highly promoted “offer” to give a charity $5 million in exchange for Obama’s records is a threat: “you mess with Mitt and I’ll mess with Barry.”

Did it work? You tell me:

8:20 AM PT — During a news conference, Gloria accused the Boston Globe of pulling a “double-cross” because she says the paper abandoned its motion to have the gag order against Maureen Sullivan Stemberg lifted.

Demonstrating that he’s both smart and transparent, Mitt issued a statement this week saying that he had no objection to his testimony in the divorce case being usealed.  The kicker, though, is that Ms. Stemberg is still bound by the gag order.

Check mate, Team Trump.

Donald Trump Trumps Gloria Allred and Team Obama

Donald Trump promoted a “bombshell” and didn’t deliver one.  I think Trump has these records in his possession already and intended to disclose them today, but changed his strategy.   Possibly Team Romney asked him to hold off, or possibly he changed his strategy in order to deter Gloria Allred and Team Obama from executing whatever sleezy plan they concocted to try to tarnish Mitt.

This video announcement is a threat from Donald to Gloria Allred and Team Obama:  Lay off Mitt, or else….

Checkmate #Trump!

Eastwood in Crossroads Ad “At Stake”

“When someone doesn’t get the job done, you gotta hold ‘em accountable.”

The “Bitter Clingers” of Penn. Dist. 12 will help Romney take Pennsylvania (VIDEO: New Ad)

McCain and Obama tied in District 12 at 49% each. In September, Romney led Obama 53-39%. A 14-point negative swing for Obama.

 

Fox News reports:

A new ad from the super PAC backing House Republicans invokes President Obama’s 2008 comments about “bitter” small-town Americans clinging to guns, religion and their prejudices against outsiders.

The ad is aimed at Democratic Rep. Mark Critz , but could have blowback for the president in the crucial western Pennsylvania district where it’s running.

Watch the ad, and continue reading….

BREAKING: Cincinnati, Ohio TV Station WCPO Shows Election Night Results with Obama Win on its Website

Why does WCPO have election results posted online 16 days before the election?

One of several screenshots taken Oct. 20, 2012

Here’s the page where WCPO at this writing still has the “results” posted: http://media2.wcpo.com/html/elections/elections.html

On Twitter, they are @WCPO

h/t Ohio Dan at AOSHQ

Has Romney Been Running Under the Radar In PA?

Pennsylvania is the forbidden fruit for Republicans; desired but always out of reach. News reports over the last 24 hours indicate that Romney is going to make a major push in that state. Paul Ryan visited the state on Saturday, and Romney has dispatched 60 plus staffers to the state — with more on the way. There are polls showing Romney ahead.

Has this plan been in the works for some months?

From all appearances, the poll cited below by TD is from a reputable polling firm. I spent some time last night perusing their website and, although it seems like a small outfit, it does appear to be a legitimate pollster.

In fact, one of the most striking things is that the firm, Susquehanna, has been tracking a below-the-radar campaign by Romney in that state.

Although keen political observers like Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard have dismissed this unknown pollster (Tweeting that “Romney up in PA? Meh. Haven’t seen any ads here for him. As of last ad buys, he thought he was down more than he can make up.”)

A news item was posted to their website commenting on the closeness of the race based on their polls and, most importantly, that Romney was spending money on advertising.

After two SP&R polls showing Romney and Obama still in a tight race in the Keystone State, Romney released two TV Commericals that specifically target the region.

This ad is sponsored by the “Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania.”  The two polls referenced above were sponsored by the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania and the Pittsburgh Tribune. The more recent poll was also sponsored by the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania.

It’s been widely reported that the RNC is sitting on huge sums of cash. It would not be a stretch to imagine that these state level Republican groups, in coordination with the RNC, have been laying the groundwork for a final two-week Romney blitz in Pennsylvania, a well-orchestrated roll-out and the ginning up of excitement in a state which Romney would love to poach.

Remember that during the Republican primaries, Gingrich seemed to have stopped Romney cold with a victory in South Carolina. As Byron York wrote at the time, Romney had to do three things to win in Florida a mere 10 days later:

1) attack Gingrich with a level of ferocity not yet seen in the already-contentious Republican presidential campaign; 2) raise the level of his performance in debate; and 3) improve his on-the-stump message to give voters more substance and fewer platitudes.

In the battle that now rages, Romney has been doing all three nationally and in Pennsylvania. He’s got twice the amount of time he had going into Florida, and the Republican state committee has been softening things up for just such a pincer move, typical of Romney and his brilliant strategists. Win or lose in Pennsylvania, it’s going to make Obama spend precious resources there.

Country First

Via @janieloo

Pic from PBS