McCain and Obama tied in District 12 at 49% each. In September, Romney led Obama 53-39%. A 14-point negative swing for Obama.
Fox News reports:
A new ad from the super PAC backing House Republicans invokes President Obama’s 2008 comments about “bitter” small-town Americans clinging to guns, religion and their prejudices against outsiders.
The ad is aimed at Democratic Rep. Mark Critz , but could have blowback for the president in the crucial western Pennsylvania district where it’s running.
Watch the ad, and continue reading….
The president made those hidden-camera comments, during a 2008 fundraiser in California, in reference to Pennsylvania voters. Obama said at the time that, as jobs disappear in the area, “It’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
A spokesman for the Young Guns Action Network — the group running the new ad — told Fox News that the ad is set to begin airing in heavy rotation in the Pittsburgh media market later this week and Johnstown media market on Monday.
The district is key to Mitt Romney’s hopes in Pennsylvania, with lots of coal production and many disaffected 2008 Obama voters.
The kicker on the ad: “A top Obama advisor even said Critz ‘enjoys common values’ with the Obama administration. Those aren’t Southwestern Pennsylvania values. A vote for Mark Critz is a vote for Barack Obama.”
Here’s what we wrote on Sept. 26:
Roll Call had a story yesterday, Pennsylvania: GOP Poll Shows Tie in 12th District Race:
A new GOP poll shows a dead heat between Rep. Mark Critz (D) and attorney Keith Rothfus (R) in southwestern Pennsylvania.
The McLaughlin & Associates survey tested 400 likely general election voters in the 12th district from Sept. 19 to 20. The margin of error is 4.9 points.
The survey showed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama in the district, 53 percent to 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
What Roll Call fails to mention is that McCain won this district in 2008 by 0.2%, or 49%-49% tied with Obama. According to this likely voter poll, Romney has a 14% lead. And this poll used a +8 Dem turnout model. Here’s what Wikipedia says about the 12th District:
Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district is represented by Congressman Mark Critz (D) after a special election was held on May 18, 2010 following the death of Democrat John Murtha. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of R+1. The district is notable as the only congressional district in the nation that voted for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004 but went for Republican John McCain in 2008.
Located in southwestern Pennsylvania, the 12th District consists of all of Greene County, and parts of Allegheny, Armstrong, Cambria, Fayette, Indiana, Somerset, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties. A thoroughly unionized district, the 12th has historically been among the most Democratic areas of the state.