Election Blogging the Blow-Out

Open 4-Day Thread

Glued to election coverage throughout Halloween weekend and into the late hours of Tuesday night, Nov. 2nd.  To the extent that it’s possible, I’ll blog pre-and-post election developments.

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Wed. Nov. 3, 2:39 am — Unresolved races include Colo., Washington, and Alaska Senate races. So what the hell, why wait for the official results.

TD projects….
Buck will win the Colorado Senate seat.
Murray will win the Washington Senate seat.
Joe Miller will win the Alaska Senate seat.

That would make the total in the Senate 52 Dem, 48 Rep, right?

In the House, at this moment it looks like a 58-seat pick-up for Republicans, for a total of 233 Republicans to 180 Dems, with 22 still undecided.

Wed. 12:21 am — woohoo, big win for Mark Kirk for BoBo’s old Senate seat in Illinois. Congratulations Illinois!

Wed. 12:13 am – Don’t know why everyone called it for Boxer in Calif. With 17% in, it’s a dead heat at 47-47%
TD is projecting that Harry Reid succeeds in stealing the Nevada Senate race!

11:48 pm — looks like Kasich pulls it off for Ohio Gov!

11:45 pm — Toomey wins in PA!
Reid leading Angle in NV (cheating is hard to beat)

11:10 pm — Toomey in PA and Kirk in IL now hanging on to narrow leads to flip those Senate seats!

10:40 pm — Nikki Haley WINS in South Carolina!
Bennet-Buck in Co. neck-and-neck.
Feingold in WI out!

Nov. 2 9:38 pm — Ohio Governor neck-and-neck

Odd:
Haley behind by 6 points in South Carolina with over 30% in
Giannoulias leading Kirk by 20 points in Illinois

5:34 pm: Tom Perriello (the ONE House member BoBo campaigned for) LOSES.

Manchin leading for WV Senate
Patrick leading for Mass. gov
Strickland leading for Ohio gov (less than 1%)
Sestak leading Toomey

Mon. 8:20 pm
Hard to keep up: victories for Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte
Scott leading Sink for Fla. governor
Haley beating Shehan

Tues. 6:00 pm — Drudge publishing exit poll results.  Warning, these are NOT actual results:

EXIT POLLS:

Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)

Election returns at Wall St. Journal.

Tues. 5:55 pm — This anxiety, butterflies in the gut, reminds me of all the primary election nights in 2008. Hard to believe it’s been 2 years.

Tues. 5:35 pm — First polls close in 25 minutes. Interactive results map by NYT HERE.

Tues. 4:50 pm — PUMA alert:  Quote from a former congressman in PA, “There are a number of Democrats who are showing up and indicating, affirmatively, that they’re voting Republican…”

Tues. 4:20 pm — John Zogby gives Newsmax 3 bellwethers to watch tonight:

Bellwether No. 1. Pennsylvania Senate — Democrat Joe Sestak vs. Republican Pat Toomey. Specifically, look for how big the turnout is in Philadelphia. “If a big vote comes out of Philly,” Zogby tells Newsmax, “that could bring a Sestak victory, [and] then means local officials and the governor were able to generate turnout from the Democratic base. And if that doesn’t happen, [it means a] bad night for the Democrats.”

Bellwether No. 2. New Jersey Congressional District 3 — Democratic Rep. John Adler vs. GOP challenger Jon Runyan. “Adler is a one-term incumbent, Runyan is a former football star,” Zogby says. “The district cuts right across the state, and it’s been a 1- to 2-point race all along. If Adler is knocked off by Runyan, that’s another good indicator.” Polls indicate the race is a tossup.

Bellwether No. 3. New York Congressional District 24 — Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri vs. GOP challenger Richard Hanna. “Mike Arcuri is a two-term incumbent Democrat running against a libertarian, independent Republican,” says the pollster. “If the Republican loses, it’s not going to mean so much that Arcuri won it. But it would indicate that the tea party maybe is not very potent, at least in upstate New York.” The latest Siena College poll shows Arcuri leading 48 to 43 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.

Tues. 3:30 pm — all kinds of noise in the blogosphere of low turn-out in Dem strongholds. *fingers crossed*

Tues. Nov. 2, 2:20 pm — Irresponsible: U.S. will spend $200 million per day for POTUS entourage to Mumbai.

Tues. Nov. 2, 2 pm — LOL – here’s Andrea Mitchell trying to defend BoBo against attacks by Chris Matthews, who is having a meltdown upon the realization that BoBo is Not The One We Were Waiting For afterall. Watch the entire video, especially the 2008 speech segment at the end. h/t Townhall:

Tues. Nov. 2, 1:45 pm — Haha, BoBo will try to be Bill Clinton tomorrow: The President Plans a Post Mortem:

The White House wants to use the news conference the next day to help Mr. Obama reframe his presidency and signal that he heard what the voters were trying to tell him.

TD NOTE: As I have said repeatedly, this mid-term earthquake was intended by Obama all along. He used his first two years to push through as much of his radical agenda as possible, knowing that he’d push voters to the brink. Now, he will straighten course having received the peoples’ message, and he will use GOP majority in Congress to win re-election.

Tues. Nov. 2, 1:30 pm — WSJ editorial by Bret Stephens, Not The Ones We Have Been Waiting For:

Only three years ago, Americans became acquainted with a junior U.S. senator with an interesting personal history, notable rhetorical gifts, programmatically liberal ideas and zero legislative accomplishments. Whereupon he was hailed as a saint and elected president.

In Argentina or Venezuela such behavior may be unexceptional. But we’re America, as they say: We’re supposed to be into celebrity culture, not cult-of-personality politics. What happened?

Tues. Nov. 2, 1 pm –
Dorothy Rabinowitz in the Wall Street Journal today:

Franklin Roosevelt led the nation through 12 years begun in incomparable national misery virtually to the end of the war. When he died, an anguished country mourned as it had not done since the death of Lincoln. Americans trusted him. The story is told of a man found weeping when Roosevelt’s funeral train went past, who was asked if he had known the president. “I didn’t know him,” he replied. “But he knew me.”

The times are now vastly different—no one expects a candidate with the powers of an FDR these days. But the requirements of leadership don’t change. Despite charm and intellect, Americans have never been able to see in Mr. Obama a president who spoke to them and for them. He has been their lecturer-in-chief, a planner of programs for his vision of a new and progressive society.

Plenty of suggestions, none of them feasible, are in the air now about how he can reposition himself for 2012, and move to the center. Mr. Obama is who he is: a man of deep-dyed ideological inclinations, with a persona to match. And that isn’t going away.

Tues. Nov. 2, 2010, 12:30 — Rush Limbaugh: “a rejection of OBAMAISM.”

Tues. Nov. 2, 2010, 12:30 pm — I VOTED!

Mon. 11:00 pm — Countdown 1 hour to Election Day. For your country’s sake, please exercise your right and fulfill your duty to vote. God bless America!

Mon. 7 pm — Jim Geraghty of the National Review makes final state-by-state Senate predictions. Excerpts:

Florida: The biggest rising star of 2010, Republican Marco Rubio, wins by a wide margin over independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

Illinois: Republican Mark Kirk beats Alexi Giannoulias by a wider margin than the current polls indicate, in a loss that is particularly stinging for President Obama.

Nevada: In perhaps the night’s sweetest victory for Republicans, Sharron Angle narrowly defeats incumbent Democrat Harry Reid. Reid has had enormous time and almost unlimited resources to close the deal and hasn’t done it. Reid will blame his defeat on the media’s unwillingness to really scrutinize his opponent, and will express relief that his life will soon be free of those smelly tourists.

South Carolina: After closely looking at Palmetto State early-voting trends, turnout patterns, and campaign expenditures, my super-duper astonishing upset pick is . . . Alvin Greene. Okay, no, not really. Republican Jim DeMint wins reelection and is becoming a true kingmaker in the Republican party.

West Virginia: Democrat Joe Manchin hangs on, but John Raese has a future in West Virginia politics, in some yet-to-be-determined role.

Mon. 10:15 am — Public Policy Polling last-minute surveys HERE.

Sun. 11:20 pm — Creepy cult alert: did you see the crowd chant “O-ba-ma” yesterday while BoBo stood there with the weird expression of an egomaniac on his face? I’ve lived through many US presidents, have never seen one “chanted to” by name before.

Sun. 9:40 pm — Brutal, Meg Whitman’s closing commercial, “Again,” using actual video of Jerry Brown in his own words:

Sun. 2 pm — Just came across this histrionic NYT headline from a couple of days ago: Bill Clinton’s Role in Florida Senate Race Seems to Cost Democrat Some Black Votes. Oh please. Florida Democrats decided before Bill supposedly intervened (which everyone has denied anyway) that a vote for Meek was a lost cause. I have liberal friends and relatives in Florida and they all lined up for Orange anyone-but-Rubio Crist weeks ago.

Sun. noon — On national news now: Sarah Palin slams media in Alaska for plotting against Joe Miller, calls the Alaska media “corrupt bastards,” after they were caught concocting a “Rand Paul” like incident at a Joe Miller rally. Hopefully these “reporters” will be fired immediately. They should have been fired by now.

Update Sun. noon — Fascinating, looks like In Trade forecasts a split Senate. At this moment, a 48% chance the Dems will keep the Senate, a 13% chance Republicans will take it, and a 43% chance of a tie.

Update Sun. 10:40 am — Shocking, right? Anchorage CBS reporters accidentally recorded scheming against Joe Miller. Fair and balanced!

Update Sat. 11:55 pm – Dems keep Senate now down to 50% on In Trade.

Update Sat. 11:45 p.m. –  Devastating:  Where are the jobs, Harry?

Update Sat. 11:00 pm — FOX News commenting on Philadelphia suburbs turning red, or at least purple.

Update Sat. 11:00 pm — Courtesy of Bud White: 47% of Democrats want Obama to have competition in the 2012 primary.  And from Time!

Update Sat. 4:00 pm — Interesting, In Trade shows chance of Senate staying in Dem. control down to 53%

Update Sat. 3:30 pm — I generally adhere to the “under promise over deliver” philosophy, but can’t help wondering if Dick Morris — the only pundit I’ve heard predicting a GOP takeover of the Senate — is right. Note Morris also thinks BoBo could be primaried.  We can HOPE.

Update Sat. 2 pm — Kickin’ things off with Carly, California’s Big Hope:

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