Almost heaven…West Virginia
The beautiful state of West Virginia, a November battleground state, hasn’t seen much of Barack Obama this year. Maybe it’s not part of his 57- (oops, I mean 50) state strategy. Or maybe he hopes that by ignoring West Virginia, the mainstream media will follow suit and shrug off a whopper-size win by Hillary Clinton.
If Barack is feeling a bit blue about tomorrow’s election, he should be in the opinion of ABC’s Jake Tapper, who explores the implications of the West Virginia primary in his post Why Shouldn’t Obama Win West Virginia?
1.8 million Americans live in West Virginia, 665,234 of them are registered Democrats. It’s bordered by two states Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois won — Virginia and Maryland, and two states Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, won — Pennsylvania and Ohio. (Its fifth border state, Kentucky, holds its primary on May 20.)
The Mountain State ranks 50th in median household income, $31,008; 50th in persons in the state 25 years or older with a bachelor’s degree or more, 15.3%; and 48th in per capita income, $23,995.
The state is 96% white and 3.5% African-American.
The idea of Democrats winning in West Virginia is perfectly sane. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one — approximately 60% to 30%.
The state has two Democratic senators — Bob Byrd and Jay Rockefeller — and a Democratic governor, Joe Manchin. Two out of its three members of Congress are Democrats. The state went for Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Sure, with few African-Americans or college-educated Democrats, this does not seem like an “Obama” state the way these primaries have been playing out.
But Obama needs to be able to convince voters like these that he cares about them, shares their values, and will change their lives. (emphasis added)
One would think.
For his part, Obama has taken the expectations-setting game to an absurd level by predicting a 60-point win for Clinton! Anyone else feeling bamboozled? A more rational expectation is something like 30 points, a landslide by any measure. And quite the embarrasment for Obama as he desperately tries to make Clinton an outcast in her own Party.
But Tapper says what millions of people who refuse to be razzle-dazzled are thinking…
If these (West Virginia) Democrats vote for Clinton, the presumptive loser, overwhelmingly — as is predicted — that indicates a real problem for Obama. I know the delegate math is close to dispositive for Clinton, but tomorrow’s butt-stomping seems to me like it should merit some serious hand-wringing among Democrats.
Agreed.
West Virginia is a beautiful place, especially the Blue Ridge Mountains. Based on what I’ve heard from the Clinton camp, the people there are warm and wonderful too. I hope that Senator Obama has the opportunity in his lifetime to spend more than a few hours getting to know them.
TexasDarlin, all rights reserved.
Not affiliated with the Hillary Clinton campaign
9 responses so far ↓
sarahemc2 // May 13, 2008 at 2:49 am
The Blueridge Mountains are in Virginia. It’s always bugged us that John Denver got that wrong, too. They skirt the south-western most tip of West Virginia, but only barely.
texasdarlin // May 13, 2008 at 3:00 am
from encarata.msn.com:
“Blue Ridge or Blue Ridge Mountains, mountain range in the southeastern United States, easternmost range of the Appalachian Mountains. It extends from northern Georgia northeastward across western North Carolina and western Virginia into West Virginia. The northern terminus of the range is generally defined as a point near Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, but some authorities include in the Blue Ridge the ranges that project north from Harpers Ferry into Maryland and Pennsylvania. ”
So you are saying that the blue ridge range does not run through parts of West Virginia?
Or you just have other issues with the post?
Coming Awakening // May 13, 2008 at 4:49 am
Are you a Republican? What will you do in 2-4 weeks when Clinton is out of the picture. I just imagine you helping the Democrats in any way.
Will you blog for McCain?
I know about people like you. I wonder how much you’re paid too. Must be a fun job - Rove must be proud of you.
texasdarlin // May 13, 2008 at 5:11 am
Yeah, right.
Elaine // May 13, 2008 at 11:13 am
You forgot to add that it is Exactly the same as Iowa demographically. So why is Obama scared to “re do” Iowa again? Hmmmm, what happened since Iowa? I am trying to think if there was anything that “came out’ about Obama in these last 6 months that may make the original Iowa people think twice about the candidate we knew absolutly nothing about back then….
sarahemc2 // May 13, 2008 at 12:32 pm
As I said, the Blue Ridge Mountains only graze the state. I’ve never heard anyone claim include in the Blue Ridge the ranges that project north from Harpers Ferry into Maryland and Pennsylvania. ‘Round here, we are certain those are the Appalachian Mountains.
So, yes, I am saying that the Blue Ridge Mountains do not run through the state in any significant way. You use them to suggest you have some idea about which parts of our state are the most beautiful. Doing so is like looking at a Monet painting and saying “That one small flower in the corner is the most beautiful part of the painting.” A little ridiculous.
texasdarlin // May 13, 2008 at 3:11 pm
ok, sarah, thanks for the geography lesson and for sharing your thoughts about why Obama will be defeated in your state by a landslide today…oh, wait, you didn’t comment on that.
I won’t repeat the error when fighting for Hillary to win the swing state of WV in the GE, don’t worry.
Thanks for the info.
katmandu1 // May 13, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Off topic: a Washington Post writer had a wonderful (bud saddening) article on sexism in this campaign. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_campaign_brought_sexis.html
As to WV, I recommend this article: http://rezkowatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rezkowatch-electability-2008-coal.html
If you go back to 1952, every president has won the majority of theelectoral vote in the tri-state coal region of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, with one exception. Bush “W” won twice narrowly. Clinton won twice handily — the EV proportion often mirrors the national contest as Cliton had big EV margins. Thinks of the disparate candidates who have won the coal region – Eisenhower (both times), Kennedy, Carter, the elder Bush, LBJ, and Wm. Clinton.
(The one exception was 1968, when Humphrey carried a majority of those EVs, but lost the traditionally Solid South because of George Wallace’s third party candidacy.)
The current averages of state head-to-head polls from RealClearPolitics are as follows. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beats Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 6.8%, while Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leads Sen. McCain by 1.2%.
In Ohio, Sen. Clinton beats Sen. McCain by 5.4%, while Sen. McCain beats Sen. Obama by 3.4%. I have seen no WV head to head polls, but Sen. Clinton presently leads Sen. Obama among polled Democrats by 30+ points.
If one throws Florida into head-to-head results, Sen. McCain defeats Sen. Obama by 9.0%, while Sen. Clinton defeats Sen. McCain by 1.7%.
Also, KY, where Obama is not popular, generally picks the winner. Are readers aware that Clinton won it twice?
BTW, I understand from reading No Quarter that there may be a fall write-in campaign for Hillary. Better than staying home, or voting for McCain.
katmandu1 // May 13, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Oh, here’s another factoid hot off the internet. Exit polls in WV show:
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Almost as many of Hillary Clinton’s West Virginia supporters would vote for John McCain as would for Barack Obama, exit polls show.
If Obama were the Democratic nominee, 36 percent of Clinton supporters would vote for him in the fall, the polls found.
But 35 percent said they’d cast their vote for McCain instead.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/13/wv.primary/index.html
Leave a Comment